Which bullpens are rested tonight, and which ones are running on fumes. Every active reliever on tonight's slate is scored on three things: how much he has thrown in the last three days, how long since he last appeared, and his SIERA — the ERA estimator that describes a pitcher better than his ERA does. Teams are listed with the thinnest bullpen first.
Short clips, no sound, captions only.
Rested, recent, overworked. A reliever who threw yesterday is not the same arm as one who has had two days off, and a reliever who has thrown on three of the last four days is often unavailable whatever the box score says. Workload is read from pitch counts over the last three days and days since the last appearance.
Depth, not names. A bullpen with one excellent closer and nothing behind him is thinner than it looks the night that closer is down. Each team is scored on its top three arms weighted by availability, plus the rested arms on the bench that are good enough to matter (under 4.00 SIERA).
SIERA rather than ERA. ERA on fifty relief innings is mostly noise — it moves on defence, sequencing and luck. SIERA is built from strikeouts, walks and batted-ball type, which stabilise far faster. Arms without enough innings for a trustworthy SIERA are shown unrated instead of being given a number nobody should trust.
This page shows what the data says. What you do with it is your business — we never publish predictions.
1 game today · all times ET · recomputed every 15 minutes
Top arms: Megill (2.94, rested), Ashby (3.03, rested), Uribe (3.09, rested) · 6 rested · 0 recent · 0 overworked · best rested arm: Megill 2.94 SIERA
Top arms: Kelly (2.63, rested), Booser (2.75, rested), Seymour (3.18, rested) · 8 rested · 0 recent · 0 overworked · best rested arm: Kelly 2.63 SIERA
Bullpens are one screen of it. The full slate adds starting pitchers with their splits by batter side, confirmed lineups as they land, park and wind, and league-wide leaderboards — all in one place, refreshed through the day.